The Philosopher
Daniel Kahneman
The face
The background
- Nationality:
- Israeli-American
- Schools:
- Prospect theory
- Branchs:
- Psychology, Economics, Behavioral economics, Cognitive psychology, Judgment and decision-making, Hedonic psychology
- Period:
- 20th-21st century
The synopsis
Daniel Kahneman was an Israeli-American psychologist and Nobel laureate recognized for his pioneering work in the psychology of judgment and decision-making, and his significant contributions to behavioral economics. Awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2002, shared with Vernon L. Smith, Kahneman's research challenged the prevailing assumption of human rationality in economic theory. He is often referred to as the 'grandfather of behavioral economics'. Alongside Amos Tversky, Kahneman established a cognitive foundation for common human errors, attributing them to heuristics and biases, and developed prospect theory. His influential 2011 book, 'Thinking, Fast and Slow,' synthesized much of his research and achieved bestseller status. Kahneman was a professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University and a founding partner of the consulting firm TGG Group. He passed away in Switzerland at the age of 90.
The works
Attention and Effort
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
The quotes
It's a wonderful thing to be optimistic. It keeps you healthy and it keeps you resilient.
It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
Happiness is determined by factors like your health, your family relationships and friendships, and above all by feeling that you are in control of how you spend your time.
The experiencing self lives in the moment; it is the one that answers the question, 'Does it hurt?' or 'What were you thinking about just now?' The remembering self is the one that answers questions about the overall evaluation of episodes or periods of one's life, such as a stay in the hospital or the years since one left college.
Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
Yes, there is a burden of financial insecurity. I don't think you find it in mood. Income is correlated with life satisfaction, so maybe you do find it in life satisfaction. You don't find it in mood, and I think it is very important.
Nothing in life is quite as important as you think it is while you're thinking about it.
Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
I think one of the major results of the psychology of decision making is that people's attitudes and feelings about losses and gains are really not symmetric. So we really feel more pain when we lose $10,000 than we feel pleasure when we get $10,000.
We're beautiful devices. The devices work well; we're all experts in what we do. But when the mechanism fails, those failures can tell you a lot about how the mind works.
Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
It's not a case of: 'Read this book and then you'll think differently. I've written this book, and I don't think differently.
People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
People who know math understand what other mortals understand, but other mortals do not understand them. This asymmetry gives them a presumption of superior ability.
It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health; they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
Clearly, the decision-making that we rely on in society is fallible. It's highly fallible, and we should know that.
Human beings cannot comprehend very large or very small numbers. It would be useful for us to acknowledge that fact.
There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
If people are failing, they look inept. If people are succeeding, they look strong and good and competent. That's the 'halo effect.' Your first impression of a thing sets up your subsequent beliefs. If the company looks inept to you, you may assume everything else they do is inept.
The brains of humans contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news.
If you think in terms of major losses, because losses loom much larger than gains - that's a very well-established finding - you tend to be very risk-averse. When you think in terms of wealth, you tend to be much less risk-averse.
The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.
We're blind to our blindness. We have very little idea of how little we know. We're not designed to know how little we know.
Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
We don't see very far in the future, we are very focused on one idea at a time, one problem at a time, and all these are incompatible with rationality as economic theory assumes it.
We think of our future as anticipated memories.
Suppose you like someone very much. Then, by a familiar halo effect, you will also be prone to believe many good things about that person - you will be biased in their favor. Most of us like ourselves very much, and that suffices to explain self-assessments that are biased in a particular direction.
People are very complex. And for a psychologist, you get fascinated by the complexity of human beings, and that is what I have lived with, you know, in my career all of my life, is the complexity of human beings.
People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
When you analyze happiness, it turns out that the way you spend your time is extremely important.
It's very difficult to distinguish between what a person believes and what they say they believe.
Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
If there is time to reflect, slowing down is likely to be a good idea.
We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
We think, each of us, that we're much more rational than we are. And we think that we make our decisions because we have good reasons to make them. Even when it's the other way around. We believe in the reasons, because we've already made the decision.
Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
For many people, commuting is the worst part of the day, and policies that can make commuting shorter and more convenient would be a straightforward way to reduce minor but widespread suffering.
Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do.
We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
Mental effort, I would argue, is relatively rare. Most of the time we coast.
Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long; that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them; in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
There is research on the effects of 9/11, and you know, compared to the enormity of it, it didn't have a huge effect on people's mood. They were going about their business, mostly.
If people do not know what is going to make them better off or give them pleasure, then the idea that you can trust people to do what will give them pleasure becomes questionable.
When people evaluate their life, they compare themselves to a standard of what a successful life is, and it turns out that standard tends to be universal: People in Togo and Denmark have the same idea of what a good life is, and a lot of that has to do with money and material prosperity.
I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.